{"id":4261,"date":"2025-08-07T15:20:21","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T13:20:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/?p=4261"},"modified":"2025-08-07T15:21:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T13:21:18","slug":"sklizen-2025-trh-je-ve-fazi-rustu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/?p=4261","title":{"rendered":"Sklize\u0148 2025: \u201eTrh je ve f\u00e1zi r\u016fstu\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Analytik Thomas Mielke z Oil World hodnot\u00ed v\u00fdhled cen \u0159epky v roce 2026. Ukrajina letos sklid\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>UFOP: Pane Mielke, jak hodnot\u00edte sou\u010dasnou situaci s \u0159epkou?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mielke: S\u00edla eura v\u016f\u010di americk\u00e9mu dolaru vedla letos ke ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00fdch zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f. Sez\u00f3nn\u00ed oslaben\u00ed cen b\u011bhem leto\u0161n\u00ed sklizn\u011b v\u0161ak bylo zat\u00edm relativn\u011b mal\u00e9. Existuje pro to n\u011bkolik d\u016fvod\u016f. Navzdory zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 produkci \u0159epky v Evropsk\u00e9 unii letos v l\u00e9t\u011b z\u016fstane glob\u00e1ln\u00ed situace s dod\u00e1vkami v \u010dervnu\/\u010dervenci 2025\/26 relativn\u011b napjat\u00e1. Pozorujeme relativn\u011b v\u00e1havou ochotu zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f prod\u00e1vat. O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd pokles produkce p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 2 miliony tun na Ukrajin\u011b, v Kanad\u011b a Austr\u00e1lii, stejn\u011b jako men\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby na za\u010d\u00e1tku sez\u00f3ny, povedou k poklesu objemu obchodu a ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmu zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159epky, a t\u00edm i k poklesu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed produkce a spot\u0159eby \u0159epkov\u00e9ho oleje. To podpo\u0159\u00ed ceny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvody existuj\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mielke: Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s rostlinn\u00fdmi oleji za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit produkce. To obvykle znamen\u00e1, \u017ee produkce je ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se spot\u0159ebou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00edzk\u00e1, rezervn\u00ed z\u00e1soby jsou relativn\u011b mal\u00e9 a ceny jsou nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9, a to ji\u017e asi \u010dty\u0159i roky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pro\u010d tedy glob\u00e1ln\u00ed produkce okam\u017eit\u011b neroste?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mielke: Po relativn\u011b kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m obdob\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00edch cen m\u00e1 trh s rostlinn\u00fdmi oleji od \u010dervna op\u011bt vzestupn\u00fd trend, vyj\u00e1d\u0159eno v americk\u00fdch dolarech. Z toho t\u011b\u017e\u00ed olejnat\u00e1 semena s vysok\u00fdm obsahem oleje, jako je \u0159epka a slune\u010dnicov\u00e1 semena, zat\u00edmco ceny s\u00f3ji se dostaly pod tlak kv\u016fli glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu p\u0159ebytku pokrutin a obilovin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cenov\u00e1 stabilita je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zp\u016fsobena struktur\u00e1ln\u00edmi probl\u00e9my na stran\u011b nab\u00eddky, zejm\u00e9na u palmov\u00e9ho oleje. V na\u0161em nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm odhadu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00ed produkce palmov\u00e9ho oleje za deset let do roku 2030 bude zhruba polovi\u010dn\u00ed oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu desetilet\u00ed. Roli hraj\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed faktory, jako je relativn\u00ed nedostatek zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 p\u016fdy, konkurence jin\u00fdch plodin a pot\u0159eba pastvin, stejn\u011b jako \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00ed pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed jevy zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 zm\u011bnou klimatu a bohu\u017eel i omezuj\u00edc\u00ed politick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Na stran\u011b popt\u00e1vky nad\u00e1le pozorujeme relativn\u011b siln\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst popt\u00e1vky po rostlinn\u00fdch olej\u00edch v Indii a mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch, zejm\u00e9na v t\u011bch s nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm r\u016fstem populace, jako je mnoho africk\u00fdch zem\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jakou roli hraje bionafta v nedostatku rostlinn\u00fdch olej\u016f?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mielke: Na trhu s biopalivy povede rostouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vka v USA a Indon\u00e9sii k dal\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu cen rostlinn\u00fdch olej\u016f v roce 2026 a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i v roce 2027. V\u00fdvoz z obou zem\u00ed v roce 2026 poklesne. Neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee by se v\u00fdvoz Malajsie zv\u00fd\u0161il. Dovoz USA poroste. Kanada bude vyv\u00e1\u017eet v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed produkce do USA, a\u0165 u\u017e ve form\u011b semen nebo oleje, a tedy m\u00e9n\u011b na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rostouc\u00ed objemy s\u00f3jov\u00e9ho oleje z Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky a slune\u010dnicov\u00e9ho oleje z Ruska, Ukrajiny a Argentiny v\u00fdznamn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed k z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu, ale zdaleka to nebude dostate\u010dn\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Vede to tak\u00e9 k pozitivn\u00ed progn\u00f3ze pro \u0159epku?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mielke: V roce 2026 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed ceny rostlinn\u00fdch olej\u016f podpo\u0159\u00ed ceny \u0159epky a zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed je nad sou\u010dasnou \u00farove\u0148. Kurz eura k dolaru v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm zdrojem nejistoty. Na rozd\u00edl od relativn\u011b napjat\u00e9 situace s dod\u00e1vkami rostlinn\u00fdch olej\u016f budou podle na\u0161\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy s pokrutinami a obil\u00edm v roce 2026 v p\u0159ebytku \u2013 za p\u0159edpokladu norm\u00e1ln\u00edch pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch podm\u00ednek v hlavn\u00edch producentsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee ziskovost produkce \u0159epky p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161\u00ed ziskovost produkce obil\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UFOP: D\u011bkuji v\u00e1m, pane Mielke, za pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdhled. Doufejme jen, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd geopolitick\u00fd a ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj \u201eum\u011ble\u201c nenaru\u0161\u00ed trhy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rozhovor vedl Stefan Arens, Unie pro podporu olejnin a b\u00edlkovinn\u00fdch rostlin, UFOP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"279\" height=\"178\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4262\" style=\"width:387px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analytik Thomas Mielke z Oil World hodnot\u00ed v\u00fdhled cen \u0159epky v roce 2026. Ukrajina letos sklid\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b. UFOP: Pane Mielke, jak hodnot\u00edte sou\u010dasnou situaci s \u0159epkou? Mielke: S\u00edla eura v\u016f\u010di americk\u00e9mu dolaru vedla letos ke ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00fdch zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f. Sez\u00f3nn\u00ed oslaben\u00ed cen b\u011bhem leto\u0161n\u00ed sklizn\u011b v\u0161ak bylo zat\u00edm relativn\u011b mal\u00e9. Existuje pro to n\u011bkolik d\u016fvod\u016f. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-top"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4261"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4264,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4261\/revisions\/4264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}