N\u00edzk\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy sklizn\u011b \u0159epky na Ukrajin\u011b se naplnily. Exportn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l klesne v roce 2025\/26 na p\u011btilet\u00e9 minimum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
U\u017e to bylo nazna\u010deno: revize progn\u00f3zy sklizn\u011b americk\u00e9ho ministerstva zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (USDA) sm\u011brem dol\u016f z poloviny srpna na 3,5 milionu tun (p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rok: 3,7 milionu tun) nebyla kone\u010dn\u00fdm slovem. Americk\u00fd zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd ata\u0161\u00e9 s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed v Kyjev\u011b nyn\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eil sv\u016fj odhad na pouh\u00fdch 3,2 milionu tun. Jednalo by se o nejmen\u0161\u00ed sklize\u0148 \u0159epky za posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky. Ve sv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b se odvol\u00e1v\u00e1 na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fadaje ukrajinsk\u00e9ho ministerstva zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, podle kter\u00fdch plocha oset\u00e1 \u0159epkou, kter\u00e1 se ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm rokem zmen\u0161ila o 3 procenta, tak\u00e9 p\u0159inesla v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy (-17 procent na 2,46 t\/ha).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Export na p\u011btilet\u00e9m minimu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Americk\u00fd zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd ata\u0161\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b pesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e USDA, pokud jde o exportn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l pro sez\u00f3nu 2025\/26: Zat\u00edmco odhad USDA z poloviny srpna je necel\u00e9 3 miliony tun, tr\u017en\u00ed pozorovatel v Kyjev\u011b odhaduje pouze 2,5 a\u017e 2,6 milionu tun. To by bylo a\u017e o 600 000 tun m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed sez\u00f3n\u011b, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e zaznamenala pokles o v\u00edce ne\u017e 500 000 tun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Agentura p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee (pl\u00e1novan\u00e9, ale dosud nerealizovan\u00e9) zaveden\u00ed 10% exportn\u00ed dan\u011b na \u0159epku d\u00e1le zp\u0159\u00edsn\u00ed ji\u017e tak omezenou exportn\u00ed nab\u00eddku. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed se v sez\u00f3n\u011b 2025\/26 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed o p\u011btinu na v\u00edce ne\u017e 650 000 tun. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se hroz\u00edc\u00ed exportn\u00ed da\u0148 nevztahuje na \u0161roty a olej, bude (mal\u00e1) \u010d\u00e1st sklizn\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prod\u00e1na do zahrani\u010d\u00ed ve vhodn\u011b zpracovan\u00e9 podob\u011b. Americk\u00fd pozorovatel p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 20% n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdvozu \u0159epkov\u00e9ho oleje na 260 000 tun a 7% n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdvozu \u0159epkov\u00e9ho \u0161rotu na 235 000 tun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cen\u00e1m \u0159epky v EU to nepom\u016f\u017ee<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n P\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd pokles v\u00fdvozn\u00edch dod\u00e1vek z Ukrajiny obvykle podporuje ceny \u0159epky v EU, kter\u00e1 je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm odb\u011bratelem. B\u011bhem posledn\u00edch t\u0159\u00ed let \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nakoupily z Ukrajiny 2,6 a\u017e 2,8 milionu tun \u0159epky, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e p\u011btilet\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br je 2,4 milionu tun. Vzhledem k sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nejistot\u011b ohledn\u011b v\u00fdvozn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho dodavatele, Kanady, je v\u0161ak v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by to m\u011blo n\u011bjak\u00fd vliv. Ne\u00fam\u011brn\u011b vysok\u00e1 sank\u010dn\u00ed cla \u010c\u00edny na zbo\u017e\u00ed z Kanady stla\u010duj\u00ed ceny v t\u00e9to zemi (a cenov\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce), co\u017e m\u00e1 negativn\u00ed dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh. Na pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9m futures trhu je cena za p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fd kontrakt (listopad 2025) v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b t\u011bsn\u011b nad 470 EUR\/t. To je o dobr\u00fdch 40 EUR\/t m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e prozat\u00edmn\u00ed maximum z poloviny \u010dervna 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zdroj: agrarticker.de<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" N\u00edzk\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy sklizn\u011b \u0159epky na Ukrajin\u011b se naplnily. Exportn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l klesne v roce 2025\/26 na p\u011btilet\u00e9 minimum. U\u017e to bylo nazna\u010deno: revize progn\u00f3zy sklizn\u011b americk\u00e9ho ministerstva zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (USDA) sm\u011brem dol\u016f z poloviny srpna na 3,5 milionu tun (p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rok: 3,7 milionu tun) nebyla kone\u010dn\u00fdm slovem. Americk\u00fd zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd ata\u0161\u00e9 s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed v Kyjev\u011b nyn\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eil sv\u016fj odhad na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[69,72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aktualita","category-top"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4313"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4314,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4313\/revisions\/4314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}