{"id":4851,"date":"2026-08-20T14:34:50","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T12:34:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/?p=4851"},"modified":"2026-08-20T14:34:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T12:34:51","slug":"repka-nemecky-deficit-v-dovozu-se-rozsiruje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/?p=4851","title":{"rendered":"\u0158epka: n\u011bmeck\u00fd deficit v dovozu se roz\u0161i\u0159uje"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhad USDA nazna\u010duje dob\u0159e z\u00e1soben\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s \u0159epkou v sez\u00f3n\u011b 2026\/27. Extr\u00e9mn\u011b pozitivn\u00ed progn\u00f3za pro EU v\u0161ak maskuje rostouc\u00ed nedostatek surovin \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v N\u011bmecku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159i pohledu na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed statistiky americk\u00e9ho ministerstva zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (USDA) o glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu s \u0159epkou se situace pro sez\u00f3nu 2026\/27 jev\u00ed jako pom\u011brn\u011b slibn\u00e1. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed produkce se ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm rokem zv\u00fd\u0161ila o dobr\u00e9 2 miliony tun a dos\u00e1hla rekordn\u00edch 98 milion\u016f tun. Popt\u00e1vka tak\u00e9 dos\u00e1hla nov\u00e9ho vrcholu po n\u00e1r\u016fstu o 4 miliony tun, a p\u0159esto na konci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho roku z\u016fstalo 1 milion tun \u0159epky neprodan\u00fdch a ur\u010den\u00fdch ke skladov\u00e1n\u00ed. Vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 to z m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy USDA zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 v polovin\u011b srpna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak se to ale shoduje nap\u0159\u00edklad s pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmi vysok\u00fdmi cenami na evropsk\u00e9m trhu s futures v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei? Tam se v\u0161echny kontrakty spadaj\u00edc\u00ed do hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho roku 2026\/27, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad listopad 2026 a \u00fanor a kv\u011bten 2027, obchoduj\u00ed na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni, kolem 546 EUR\/t. To nakonec nesed\u00ed. Na rozd\u00edl od Evropsk\u00e9 komise a dal\u0161\u00edch analytik\u016f USDA ve sv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b z poloviny srpna nezohlednila \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty na sklizni v EU. V d\u016fsledku toho je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 progn\u00f3za Evropsk\u00e9 komise p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 700 000 tun ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e progn\u00f3za USDA a klesla pod hranici 20 milion\u016f tun. V\u011bt\u0161ina ned\u00e1vno koluj\u00edc\u00edch odhad\u016f se pohybovala v rozmez\u00ed od 19,7 do 20,4 milionu tun a v\u0161echny byly ned\u00e1vno revidov\u00e1ny sm\u011brem dol\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Progn\u00f3za sklizn\u011b pro N\u011bmecko v sestupn\u00e9 spir\u00e1le<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee Evropsk\u00e1 komise bude muset prov\u00e9st dal\u0161\u00ed revize sm\u011brem dol\u016f, a to v\u00fdhradn\u011b kv\u016fli situaci v N\u011bmecku. Zat\u00edmco Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad odhadoval na za\u010d\u00e1tku srpna sklize\u0148 \u0159epky v N\u011bmecku v roce 2026 na 3,8 milionu tun, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 asociace Raiffeisen (DRV) v polovin\u011b srpna aktualizovala odhad sklizn\u011b a sn\u00ed\u017eila o\u010dek\u00e1vanou produkci o 400 000 tun na pouh\u00fdch 3,7 milionu tun. V \u00fater\u00fd 18. srpna pak N\u011bmeck\u00e1 asociace zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f (DBV) stanovila nov\u00e9 minimum v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sklizn\u011b s hodnotou 3,4 milionu tun. V\u0161echny t\u0159i n\u011bmeck\u00e9 instituce tak o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee sklize\u0148 \u0159epky v roce 2026 bude nejen v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce, ale tak\u00e9 pod p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4,1 milionu tun, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1le p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 Evropsk\u00e1 komise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 pot\u0159eba dovozu se zvy\u0161uje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sklize\u0148 N\u011bmecka zvy\u0161uje jeho pot\u0159ebu dovozu. V r\u00e1mci EU jsou nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi dodavateli Francie a Rumunsko. Spole\u010dn\u011b pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30 procent celkov\u00e9 pot\u0159eby dovozu. Je tedy \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, \u017ee Francouzi v roce 2026 sklidili dal\u0161\u00ed dobrou \u00farodu, kter\u00e1 se vyrovnala v\u00fdsledku z p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku, kdy \u010dinila 4,7 milionu tun. Pro Rumunsko se ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 odhady pohybovaly v rozmez\u00ed od 2,5 do 3 milion\u016f tun. Shoda je pouze v tom, \u017ee se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 rekordn\u00ed sklize\u0148. Dobr\u00e1 sklize\u0148 v\u0161ak sama o sob\u011b nezaru\u010duje nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky. V N\u011bmecku a ve velk\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech EU je vnitrozemsk\u00e1 plavba siln\u011b omezena vyschl\u00fdmi \u0159ekami. To v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezuje dopravu p\u0159es R\u00fdn a Dunaj a zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na dopravu u \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed sklizn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I z Ukrajiny, kde pouze Ministerstvo zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed USA o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 rostouc\u00ed sklize\u0148 \u0159epky, je export v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b pomal\u00fd. Zem\u011b dodala v roce 2025 do N\u011bmecka n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 1 milion tun \u0159epky; v\u00edce dodala pouze Austr\u00e1lie s 1,5 milionu tun. Sou\u010dasnou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou omezen\u00e9 kapacity dod\u00e1vek je ni\u010den\u00ed infrastruktury v \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstavech. Odklon v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed \u0159epky do EU je brzd\u011bn dv\u011bma faktory: za prv\u00e9 n\u00edzkou hladinou Dunaje a za druh\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00edm Polska uzav\u0159\u00edt hranici s Ukrajinou pro dovoz \u0159epky. Vl\u00e1da si klade za c\u00edl chr\u00e1nit sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd sektor p\u0159ed propadem cen. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed sklize\u0148 \u0159epky se ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s lo\u0148sk\u00fdm rokem sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed o 400 000 a\u017e 800 000 tun, by v\u0161ak odpor vl\u00e1dy mohl nakonec polevit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po \u0159epce v EU je st\u00e1le popt\u00e1vka<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To v\u0161e podtrhuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee \u0159epka bude v N\u011bmecku v letech 2026\/27 nedostatkov\u00fdm zbo\u017e\u00edm. Pokud se napln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty na sklizni, kter\u00e9 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s lo\u0148sk\u00fdm rokem p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 N\u011bmeck\u00fd svaz zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f (DBV), zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed se dovozn\u00ed pot\u0159eba N\u011bmecka. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u0159epka p\u011bstovan\u00e1 v EU pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 pouze malou \u010d\u00e1st popt\u00e1vky a z Ukrajiny se do EU dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b \u0159epky \u2013 nejen kv\u016fli o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 n\u00edzk\u00e9 sklizni, ale tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli politicky motivovan\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu dom\u00e1c\u00edho zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 bude \u0159epka \u201eVyrobeno v EU\u201c v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech a m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b velmi \u017e\u00e1dan\u00e1. V Kanad\u011b se koncem podzimu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 velk\u00e1 sklize\u0148. Je v\u0161ak nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by to v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ilo struktur\u00e1ln\u011b klesaj\u00edc\u00ed exportn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l. Stejn\u011b jako Ukrajina se i Kanada zam\u011b\u0159uje na silnou expanzi dom\u00e1c\u00edho zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u00edsto toho vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed \u0159epkov\u00e9ho oleje a \u0161rotu do zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: agrarticker.de<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhad USDA nazna\u010duje dob\u0159e z\u00e1soben\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s \u0159epkou v sez\u00f3n\u011b 2026\/27. Extr\u00e9mn\u011b pozitivn\u00ed progn\u00f3za pro EU v\u0161ak maskuje rostouc\u00ed nedostatek surovin \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v N\u011bmecku. P\u0159i pohledu na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed statistiky americk\u00e9ho ministerstva zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (USDA) o glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu s \u0159epkou se situace pro sez\u00f3nu 2026\/27 jev\u00ed jako pom\u011brn\u011b slibn\u00e1. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed produkce se ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","footnotes":""},"categories":[69,72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aktualita","category-top"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4851"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4851\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4852,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4851\/revisions\/4852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spzo.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}